Venezuela holds a unique position in the global energy landscape. Despite producing less than 1% of global oil supply today, it possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at around 303 billion barrels. This gap between potential and reality is the result of years of political instability, sanctions, and chronic underinvestment under Nicolás Maduro’s rule.
From a global pricing perspective, a sudden regime change in Venezuela would not immediately crash oil prices. Current Venezuelan production stands at roughly 800,000 barrels per day, meaning its short-term impact on global supply remains limited. However, the strategic importance lies in the medium to long term. A new, U.S.-aligned government could unlock investment, restore infrastructure, and gradually bring millions of barrels back to the market.
This explains Washington’s interest through the lens of the Monroe Doctrine, which treats Latin America as a core U.S. sphere of influence. Removing Maduro would not only weaken rivals like Russia, China, and Iran—who have financial and strategic stakes in Venezuela—but also strengthen U.S. energy security at a time when American federal debt has exceeded $34 trillion.
The biggest losers from such a shift would be Venezuela itself in the short term, along with Russia and China, whose loans, oil-for-debt deals, and geopolitical foothold would be at risk. For the U.S., the objective is less about immediate oil prices and more about long-term control, influence, and strategic energy flexibility.
In short, Venezuela is not about today’s oil market — it’s about tomorrow’s balance of power.
